E-commerce
October 1, 2026
Wondering how to adapt your email marketing strategy when the open rate is no longer a reliable indicator?
The answer lies in one sentence: you need to switch to engagement metrics like clicks and conversions, which measure the real impact on your sales. This is essential for any Shopify merchant who wants to run campaigns with solid data.
The open rate has always been an approximate measurement, and Apple’s privacy protections have accelerated its loss of reliability. The trap would be to continue optimizing your emails based on an indicator that no longer reflects reality.
So how do you adapt your email marketing without a reliable open rate? On the agenda:
Why has the open rate never been precise?
What impact does Apple’s privacy protection have on your campaigns?
What metrics replace the open rate to guide your emails?
How do you test your email subject lines without reliable open data?
What checklist should you adopt to measure the performance of your email campaigns?
Let's get started.
Summary
Why has the open rate never been an accurate metric?
The open rate is based on a simple technique: an invisible 1-pixel image is embedded in each email. When the recipient opens the message and loads the images, this pixel is downloaded, and the email software records it as an open.
But this system doesn't actually measure an open. It measures an image download. Therefore, several situations distort the result:
Images disabled: a recipient can read your email without loading images, and no open is counted.
Plain text emails: messages without HTML do not contain a pixel, so no open is detected.
Preview pane: some email clients display HTML without loading images, which distorts the count.
Clearly, the open rate has always been an approximation. It gave a rough idea, not an absolute truth. For an e-commerce merchant, it was already a mistake to base all decisions on this single figure.
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Which devices do not count email opens?
By default, some email clients and devices never download images. As a result, they do not generate any open data, even if the recipient actually reads your message.
Here are the main cases:
Smartwatches: smartwatches display emails in plain text to save battery.
Gaming consoles: gaming devices often use basic email clients that do not load images.
Voice assistants: smart speakers read emails aloud, without ever loading visual content.
These devices represent a growing share of email opens. If your customers use them, your open rates have always been underestimated, without your knowledge. This is yet another reason not to rely solely on this metric to evaluate the performance of your campaigns.
How does Apple's privacy protection affect your emails?
In September 2021, Apple rolled out iOS 15 with a feature called Mail Privacy Protection. It allows iPhone, iPad, and iPod Touch users to load remote content privately, which blocks open tracking by the sender.
In practice, when this protection is enabled, every email is automatically flagged as opened, whether the recipient actually read it or not. The data therefore becomes inflated and unreliable.
The scale of the phenomenon is considerable:
48% of mobile devices worldwide run on iOS.
80% of email opens occur on mobile.
If your audience is mostly on mobile, your open rates are probably highly inflated. If they are mostly on desktop, the impact will be lesser. In any case, the metric becomes difficult to interpret.
By how much have open rates increased since iOS 15?
Since the rollout of iOS 15, open rates have artificially soared for many merchants. The figures vary depending on the composition of the subscriber list.
For some advertisers, the observed increase is in the range of 10 to 20%. Other brands, with a highly mobile audience, are seeing increases of 50% or more. These variations make comparisons over time almost impossible.
The problem is twofold:
Your historical data is no longer comparable to your current data.
Your industry benchmarks are becoming obsolete because they incorporate skewed data.
For a Shopify merchant, the consequence is clear: you must stop running your campaigns based on a metric whose reliability is collapsing. The good news is that alternatives exist and they measure what really matters.
Why is A/B testing email subject lines becoming difficult?
A/B testing of email subject lines has long been a common practice. The principle: send two versions of a subject line to a small sample, measure which one gets the best open rate, and then send the winning version to the rest of the list.
With iOS 15, this method loses its reliability. If part of your audience enables privacy protection, all opens are counted, whether there was an actual read or not. The test no longer distinguishes successful subject lines from weak ones.
Marketers are looking for workarounds. Some tools, like Litmus, separate iOS metrics from others to provide data deemed more reliable. But this approach does not solve the fundamental problem: the open is no longer a reliable indicator of interest.
The sustainable solution is to test something else: clicks, conversions, and the revenue generated by each variant.
Which metrics are replacing the open rate for managing your emails?
Faced with the declining reliability of open rates, engagement metrics are becoming your best allies. They measure the real impact of your campaigns on your customers' behavior.
Here are the key indicators to focus on:
Click-through rate: the percentage of recipients who click on a link in your email. This metric remains reliable because it depends on a voluntary action.
Conversion rate: the percentage of clicks that lead to a purchase or a desired action on your store. This is the ultimate performance indicator.
Generated revenue: the amount of sales directly attributable to each email campaign.
These metrics are largely unaffected by Apple's changes. They allow you to compare your campaigns against each other and optimize your mailings based on what actually generates sales.
Why does the click-through rate remain a reliable indicator?
The click-through rate measures an explicit action: the recipient clicks on a link, a button, or an image in your email. This action cannot be simulated by a privacy protection system.
Unlike the open, which can be recorded without actual reading, the click requires intent. The recipient must see your content, find it relevant, and decide to learn more. It is a strong signal of engagement.
For an e-commerce merchant, the click-through rate is all the more useful as it brings them closer to the ultimate goal: the sale. An email that generates clicks is an email of interest. An email that generates conversions is an email that sells.
By shifting your focus to the click-through rate, you align your measurement with the actual behavior of your customers, rather than a technical approximation.
How to measure the impact of your emails on sales?
The ultimate goal of e-commerce email marketing is simple: to generate sales. To measure this impact, you need to track the complete customer journey, from click to purchase.
Here is how to do it:
Conversion tracking: set up purchase tracking in your emailing platform to know how many sales originate from each campaign.
Attribution: use tracking parameters (UTMs) to identify the source of each visit to your store.
Average order value: compare the average basket size of customers coming from your emails with that of other channels.
This data allows you to calculate the return on investment of each campaign. You then know which emails generate revenue and which ones need to be improved. This is a much more profitable approach than relying on the open rate.
How to test your email subject lines without reliable open data?
A/B testing of email subject lines is not dead, it just needs to evolve. Instead of measuring opens, measure the clicks and conversions generated by each variant.
Here is an adapted method:
Send two versions of a subject line to a representative sample of your list.
Measure the click-through rate of each version after a fixed period, for example 24 hours.
Send the winning version to the rest of your list, the one that generated the most clicks.
This approach tests the actual impact of the subject line on engagement, rather than an approximate metric. It allows you to optimize your campaigns based on what drives your subscribers to take action.
To go further, you can also test the content of the email itself: the text, the images, the call-to-action buttons. The goal remains the same: to maximize conversions.
How can you integrate these changes into your overall e-commerce strategy?
Email marketing does not work in a silo. It is part of a broader strategy that includes SEO, conversion, and customer experience. The loss of reliability of the open rate is an opportunity to rethink your approach.
Here is how to integrate these changes:
Align your goals: define campaign goals based on clicks and conversions, not on opens.
Cross-reference your data: combine email data with your traffic and sales data for a complete view.
Optimize your landing pages: an email that gets clicked must lead to a page that converts. Work on your conversion rate to maximize the return of each campaign.
By adopting this approach, you transform a technical change into a strategic opportunity. You focus your efforts on what matters: selling more, not opening more.
How does Qstomy help measure the real impact of your emails?
Qstomy, the Shopify AI agent, helps you turn your email campaigns into actual sales. Instead of relying on open rates, Qstomy acts directly on the buying journey to maximize conversion.
Here is how Qstomy complements your email strategy:
Personalized recommendations: Qstomy guides your customers to the right products, increasing the value of each click from your emails.
Upsell and cross-sell: the agent suggests complementary products at the time of purchase, increasing the average order value of your campaigns.
Cart recovery: Qstomy follows up with customers who abandon their carts, turning lost clicks into finalized sales.
Package tracking and customer service: the agent answers your customers' questions after purchase, reducing support requests and improving the experience.
With more than 100 merchants supported, Qstomy helps you measure the impact of your emails on revenue, not on approximate metrics.
What checklist should you adopt to measure the performance of your email campaigns?
Here is a concise checklist to adapt your email marketing without a reliable open rate:
Stop steering by opens: replace this metric with click-through rate and conversion rate.
Set up conversion tracking: measure sales attributable to each campaign.
Test your subject lines on clicks: use A/B testing based on engagement, not opens.
Analyze revenue: compare the value generated by each email to prioritize your efforts.
Use Qstomy: automate conversion and customer service to maximize the return on each campaign.
In brief
The open rate has never been precise, and iOS 15 has made it even less reliable. The solution: switch to clicks, conversions, and revenue. These metrics measure the real impact of your emails on your sales.
FAQ
Is the open rate completely useless? No, but it must be interpreted with caution. Use it as a secondary indicator, not as a performance metric.
What is the best metric for email marketing? The conversion rate and the generated revenue are the metrics closest to your final goal: selling.
Does Qstomy replace my emailing tool? No, Qstomy complements your strategy by optimizing conversion and customer experience after the click.
To go further: E-commerce SEO strategy for category pages - Qstomy, How to improve sales conversion rates in e-commerce? - Qstomy, Integrating customer service responses into a useful e-commerce SEO strategy - Qstomy, What e-commerce marketing strategy with no advertising budget? - Qstomy, How to improve e-commerce conversion rates and sales? - Qstomy, How does SEO work for e-commerce sites? - Qstomy, Which e-commerce platform to choose for a small business? - Qstomy.
Enzo
October 1, 2026
