E-commerce
September 18, 2026
Are you wondering how the trade war is affecting e-commerce and the US economy? Tariffs imposed by the United States and retaliatory measures from trading partners are disrupting costs, supply chains, and the competitiveness of online stores. For a merchant, understanding these dynamics is essential to anticipate price increases, adjust sourcing, and protect margins.
The situation is complex: each country reacts differently, and the products affected vary. Some sectors, such as food or electronics, are more exposed than others. Small and medium-sized e-commerce businesses must monitor these developments to adapt their strategy.
So, how does the trade war affect e-commerce and the US economy? On the agenda:
What are the tariffs imposed by the United States and their immediate effects?
How are the European Union, Canada, Mexico, and China reacting?
What are the consequences for the prices of imported products and the competitiveness of merchants?
How are supply chains being disrupted and how can you adapt?
What strategies should you adopt to protect your store and your margins?
Let's get started.
Summary
What are the customs duties imposed by the United States and their immediate effects?
On July 6, the United States imposed tariffs ranging from 10% on imported aluminum to 25% on steel, targeting their trading partners worldwide. This decision triggered retaliatory measures from the European Union, Canada, China, and Mexico, which in turn taxed American products.
For e-commerce merchants, the immediate effect is an increase in import costs, particularly for products manufactured in China or using steel and aluminum components. Purchase prices are rising, and it is rare for sellers to be able to absorb this increase without passing it on to the final consumer.
The products concerned are mainly industrial goods and raw materials, but some everyday consumer goods, such as electronics and clothing, are also affected. Merchants must therefore closely monitor their suppliers and sourcing costs.
Convert over 2,000 customers on average per month with Qstomy.
The world’s 1st Shopify AI dedicated to customer conversion
Empowering 200+ e-commerce merchants
How is the European Union reacting, and what is the impact for American sellers?
The European Union has imposed 25% tariffs on $3.4 billion of US products, including Harley-Davidson motorcycles. In response, the company announced it is shifting some of its production outside the United States for the European market.
Other targeted products include denim, orange juice, tobacco, whiskey, and peanut butter. These items are primarily food and beverage products, which Europeans do not typically buy online from US sellers. The impact on transatlantic e-commerce is therefore limited, except for merchants specializing in these categories.
However, US sellers exporting to the EU must check if their products are affected and adjust their prices accordingly. A good understanding of the taxed product lists is essential to avoid unpleasant surprises.
What are the Canadian measures and their consequences for e-merchants?
Canada has imposed tariffs on approximately $12.5 billion of US exports. More than 40 US steel products are taxed at 25%, and a 10% tax is levied on about 80 other items, including maple syrup, coffee beans, and jams.
These measures have a limited direct effect on online sales from US merchants to Canadian consumers, as the taxed products are primarily foodstuffs. Food sellers must therefore be particularly vigilant.
Furthermore, President Trump is considering imposing tariffs on vehicles and auto parts imported from Canada, a bilateral trade worth $140 billion annually. This measure would not directly affect e-commerce, but it could have indirect repercussions on logistical costs and delivery times.
What are the Mexican tariffs and their impact on online sales?
Mexico has imposed 20% tariffs on nearly $3 billion of US products in response to US duties on Mexican steel. The Mexican government has also removed preferential tariffs established under NAFTA on certain products, including US pork, potatoes, and whiskey.
Mexico buys 25% of US pork exports, and other agricultural products like apples, cranberries, and cheeses have been added to the list. Most of the targeted products will face tariffs of 15% to 25%.
These tariffs will not significantly affect online sales from US merchants to Mexico, as the taxed products are not typically purchased online. However, food sellers should monitor the development of the situation to adjust their offerings.
How is China fighting back, and what are the consequences for cross-border e-commerce?
China has imposed a 25% tariff on US agricultural products, including pork and soybeans. China buys about 60% of US soybean exports, worth about $12.4 billion a year, and is now sourcing from Brazil.
If the United States taxes all Chinese imports, the impact on cross-border e-commerce will be significant. Americans buy a large amount of finished consumer goods made in China online, such as clothing and electronics. These products will become more expensive because merchants will not be able to absorb the rising costs.
Chinese companies like Alibaba and JD.com, which are starting to attract US consumers, will also be affected. US merchants selling in China will be less competitive if US products are subject to retaliatory tariffs.
What are China's assets in this trade war?
China holds about $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds. If it stops buying new bonds or sells its holdings, it could lead to higher yields and increase pressure on US government debt.
The Chinese government could also tighten regulations for US companies operating in China. But the most likely scenario is the devaluation of its currency, the yuan. An 8% drop would almost cancel out the effect of tariffs on Chinese products, as they would become cheaper in dollars.
This devaluation would make US imports more expensive in China, but since China exports much more to the US than it imports, it might be willing to do so. Merchants must therefore anticipate currency fluctuations and price variations.
How is the trade war disrupting supply chains?
The concept of "Made in America" is ambiguous: it can mean manufactured in the United States with American components, or assembled in America with a portion of parts or raw materials coming from other countries. These components are now subject to customs duties, which increases production costs.
Supply chains are highly integrated, particularly in the automotive industry, where parts manufactured in one country are often assembled in another. Customs duties disrupt this integration and force companies to rethink their sourcing.
For e-merchants, this means potentially longer delivery times and higher logistics costs. It is crucial to diversify suppliers and negotiate flexible contracts to deal with these disruptions.
Which e-commerce sectors are most exposed to customs duties?
The most exposed sectors are those that rely on products imported from China, such as consumer electronics, apparel, and accessories. Merchants selling these categories will likely have to raise their prices, which could reduce their sales.
Food and agricultural products are also affected, particularly those exported to Canada, Mexico, and China. Sellers of specialty products, such as maple syrup or whiskey, must monitor the lists of taxed goods.
On the other hand, luxury goods merchants could be less affected, as these products generally do not contain Chinese raw materials. They may even benefit from a competitive advantage if mass-market products become more expensive.
How can merchants adapt to rising costs?
Faced with rising import costs, merchants must consider several strategies. First, renegotiate with suppliers to obtain better prices or more flexible payment terms. Second, diversify sourcing to reduce dependence on a single country.
It is also possible to adjust selling prices, but with caution to avoid losing customers. Transparent communication about the reasons for the increases can help maintain trust.
Finally, optimizing logistical costs and margins can partially offset the increase in purchasing costs. Merchants can also explore alternative markets less affected by customs duties.
What are the economic outlooks for US e-commerce?
The economic outlook is uncertain. If customs duties persist, the prices of imported products will rise, which could reduce online consumption. Small shops could suffer more than large ones, which have more margin to absorb the costs.
The devaluation of the yuan could mitigate the impact on Chinese products, but it would make US exports less competitive. Merchants who export must therefore monitor exchange rates and adapt their pricing strategy.
Ultimately, the trade war is pushing e-merchants to be more agile, diversify their markets and optimize their supply chain. Those who adapt quickly will be able to come out on top.
How does Qstomy help merchants deal with these disruptions?
Qstomy, the Shopify AI agent, helps merchants maintain their sales and customer service despite disruptions. Thanks to its recommendation and upsell/cross-sell features, Qstomy increases the average cart value, partially offsetting rising costs.
In the event of price increases, Qstomy can automatically answer customer questions about delivery times, return policies, and additional fees, thereby reducing the load on your team. It also tracks packages and manages customer service requests, which is crucial in times of logistical uncertainty.
With over 100 merchant users, Qstomy is designed to improve conversion and customer satisfaction, even in times of economic turbulence. It allows you to focus on your sourcing strategy while it handles the day-to-day operations.
What checklist should you adopt to protect your store during a trade war?
Here is a checklist to help you navigate this complex period:
Supplier Audit: identify products imported from countries subject to customs duties and evaluate alternatives.
Contract Renegotiation: discuss with your suppliers to obtain better prices or extended payment terms.
Market Diversification: explore new markets, especially in countries less affected by tariffs.
Logistics Cost Optimization: compare carriers and shipping methods to reduce fees.
Customer Communication: inform your customers of potential price or lead time changes transparently.
In brief
The trade war affects e-commerce by increasing costs and disrupting supply chains. Merchants must be proactive to protect their margins and competitiveness.
FAQ
Do customs duties affect all products? No, only certain products imported from specific countries are affected. It is important to check the official lists.
How can I know if my products are taxed? Consult the customs duties lists published by governments and inquire with your suppliers.
Can Qstomy help me manage customer questions about price increases? Yes, Qstomy can automatically answer frequently asked questions and customize responses according to your policies.
To go further: Does Texas levy a sales tax on online purchases? - Qstomy, How to create a payment gateway for an e-commerce site? - Qstomy, How to build an e-commerce Facebook Ads strategy? - Qstomy, How does SEO work for e-commerce sites? - Qstomy, How to increase sales for an e-commerce store? - Qstomy, How to manage customer questions about in-store trials before online purchase - Qstomy, Pre-purchase questions in e-commerce: the 30 objections to address on your site - Qstomy.
Enzo
September 18, 2026
